Eskom's weekly energy availability factor (EAF) is better than the same period recorded in 2022 and 2021 for the first time in 2023. However, the credit for lower levels of load shedding may lie elsewhere. The EAF for Eskom's fleet remains below 60% and far below the 65% minimum set by energy regulator Nersa. Data shows that energy supply hasn't necessarily improved much. Instead, the reprieve from load shedding appears to be thanks to much lower demand – and a significant uptake of rooftop solar in 2023 is helping things along.
Previous years of operation show that Eskom's EAF tends to drop significantly in the last few months of the year, with the utility unable to maintain a 65% level in 2021 and 2022. 2023 has been the worst year for EAF so far, starting in January below 50% and only managing to peak at just under 60% near the middle of the year. However, in recent weeks, the utility has managed to turn the tides slightly, showing an upward trajectory in the near term and even beating the EAF recorded in week 41 in both 2021 and 2022 – the first time that has happened this year.
The turn for the energy situation isn't necessarily because Eskom is improving significantly but rather because demand has dropped significantly. The group is still tracking lower than the previous two years and falling short of the country's typical demand profile. The path is pointing upwards, and the return of units at Kusile will definitely boost power availability, but the group still has some way to go to meeting demand.
One explanation for this could be the surge in self-generation and renewable generation in the country, especially rooftop solar. Since the start of 2023, South Africans have almost doubled their potential rooftop PV capacity.
