Eskom, South Africa's power utility, has experienced a "terrible start to 2024" as nationwide rolling blackouts resume. The utility announced the successful synchronisation of Unit 5 at the Kusile Power Station Project on 31 December 2023, which added 800MW of new capacity to help lessen rolling blackouts. However, Eskom resumed load shedding on 2 January, implementing stage 2, and will escalate this to stage 3 from 5 am on Wednesday, 3 January.
The utility blamed the need to reintroduce power cuts after nearly a three-week break on a setback in its planned maintenance efforts, with three generating units with a potential 2,148 MW capacity not coming back online as anticipated. Additionally, the utility recently experienced the unplanned losses of six generating units with a combined capacity of 3,113 MW. Unplanned outages are currently at 16,231MW of generating capacity, while the capacity out of service for planned maintenance is 8,451MW.
Energy analyst and managing director of EE Business Intelligence, Chris Yelland, said this resumption of rolling blackouts came as a surprise to many, including himself. Demand for electricity is still very low, and supply is even lower. Over 24,000MW out of service is a record for South Africa, setting a new record in South Africa. Unplanned outages of 16,000MW are a return to some of the worst periods of 2023, while the planned outages are at a very high level currently.
Yelland called this a "very bad start to the year," particularly coming only a day after Eskom announced the successful synchronisation of Unit 5 at the Kusile Power Station Project. He said that while it was an important milestone and a good news story, the public should not expect the unit to make any significant contribution to the grid right now.
Eskom, the South African power utility, is facing financial difficulties due to the construction of Unit 6 and the failure of Units Medupi and Kusile. The delays in these units have caused significant damage to the South African economy and led to load shedding. Eskom is also working to return Medupi Unit 4 to service by the end of July 2024, but there could still be challenges in resolving the issues.
The power utility is replacing the entire generator, which was written off due to an explosion in 2021, with a second-hand generator that comes with its own problems. This second-hand generator is not designed for the existing installation, so there will be extra work in adapting it to fit the existing installation.
Eskom has appealed against a ruling from the Gauteng Division of the High Court in Pretoria, which found the government responsible for rolling blackouts and the numerous failures that led to them. The court also ruled that the government must take steps to stop the interruption of power to public health facilities, police stations, and schools by the end of January.
ActionSA, an applicant in the case, criticized Eskom's application for leave to appeal against the ruling, arguing that the judgment was too vague and its orders were either unlawful, dangerous, or impossible to implement. The power utility argued that the timeline given in the judgment presented a major problem, as there are practical implications, procurement implications, and distribution network issues that make it difficult to carry out the judge's orders.
In the year ahead, Eskom's fleet availability has been declining every year, and it is expected that the energy availability factor will remain at the same poor levels of 2023.
