President Cyril Ramaphosa is set to use the BRICS Summit to position himself as a global statesman and a shoo-in for a second term after the 2024 election. With an expected 40 heads of state in Johannesburg, Ramaphosa wants to make clear his intention to fight and win next year's election for the ANC. Sandton in Johannesburg is getting a spit, polish, and shine to host the summit where BRICS countries want to establish a voice to end the Ukraine war, discuss expansion of the five-country bloc, and mull a currency to challenge the US dollar's global economic hegemony.
The jury is out on the efficacy of the plans. President Cyril Ramaphosa will be looking to build his somewhat battered global profile and make clear to South African power blocs and the public that he aims to fight the 2024 election to win a second term and establish a governing reputation that has evaded him since he became President in 2018. Early in 2023, a narrative developed in political circles that he was tired and "quietly quitting." Deputy President Paul Mashatile was primed and ready to take over, briefing constituencies, including the media and business, on how he would be an implementer.
Power cuts have been worse in 2023 than in any other year. The stalled reform of Transnet in a commodity boom bashed growth projections from post-Covid hopeful (between 3% and 4%) to comatose (0.3%-0.7%). In March, Investec CEO Fani Titi told Bloomberg, “We are going nowhere fast. The government is disorganised. Disorganised.” Bloomberg reported that Ramaphosa risked abandonment by his kitchen cabinet and brain trust — big business.
As business began to back a new princeling (Mashatile spoke here, there and everywhere in Sandton’s C-suites), Ramaphosa realised that a second term was not a given. He has since put his foot on the accelerator. With support from a Business for South Africa Marshall Plan to fix load shedding, logistics, crime, and corruption, there is finally movement.
Ramaphosa still has the highest approval rating of all South African politicians as measured by two major polls, and the ANC depends on him to maintain its majority. The latest polls suggest the governing party will get between 48% and 51% in next year’s election, which will be held between May and August. If opposition parties can bring out the 14 million, especially young voters who are either not registered or did not vote in the 2021 election, the picture can change.
The Multi-Party Charter pact signed last week by seven political parties led by the DA, Inkatha, ActionSA, and the FF+ has taken the fight to the ANC. If the coalition pact holds, it poses a threat to ANC hegemony. The question is whether Mashatile will wait to bid for the ANC presidency in 2026 and build a profile as Deputy President of the country and the party.
Legislators in Washington are observing the summit. The Agoa preference programme, which provides duty-free access to US markets for an annual $ 3 billion in exports, is safe for now but can come into play quickly. The European Union sponsors the potential R1.3-trillion transition investment (JET-IP), which can pave and pay the way out of South Africa’s crippling power cuts.
