South Africa is set to experience its hottest year in history, with November breaking record-breaking temperatures and heatwave conditions lasting 10 days across the country. Meteorologist Annette Botha from Vox Weather explained that the prolonged heatwave is likely a result of global warming, as higher global temperatures make it easier for temperatures to reach the heatwave threshold. The country has entered El Niño, which tends to have warmer and drier conditions across the country.
Francois Engelbrecht, professor of climatology and director of the Global Change Institute at Wits University, agreed that the combined effects of ongoing global warming, with a strong El Niño event, have led to all these temperature records being broken across the world. Climate Central scientists assessed worldwide air temperatures over 12 months (1 November 2022 to 31 October 2023) and found that with an average warming of more than 1.3°C, the past 12 months were the hottest on record.
The UN Environment Programme's latest Emission Gap Report released this month revealed that this year (until the beginning of October) 86 days were recorded with temperatures of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and September was the hottest recorded month, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists have found that June, July, August, September, and October 2023 were the hottest months since records began in the mid-1800s.
So, we are on the verge of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold of global warming for the first time, and we are very close to that happening. In terms of a single calendar year, we won't exceed that threshold this year, but we are very close to that happening. However, 2023 will still be the warmest year on record. We've already seen exceptionally warm periods in the northern hemisphere – from Asia to Mediterranean Europe, to the southern US.
As scientists predicted, these heatwave conditions have made their way to the side of the hemisphere during our summer months, because we have entered the El Niño period. Therefore, we can now say with certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year ever recorded by humans, with records going back to roughly 1850.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Sixth Assessment, published in August 2021, found that human activities are causing climate change. Human influence is making extreme climate events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, more frequent and severe.
Francois Engelbrecht and Coleen Vogel, from the Global Change Institute at Wits University and contributing authors to several IPCC reports, previously explained to Daily Maverick that "this [the global warming since pre-industrial levels we're experiencing now] is likely the warmest Earth has been in 125,000 years." However, the difference is that those periods of higher temperatures were caused by slow changes in the orbital characteristics of Earth, occurring over tens of thousands of years. The warming that has occurred since the pre-industrial era is rapid, and cannot be explained by any natural process. Thus, they found that "global warming since the pre-industrial era is unequivocally the consequence of human activities, specifically the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, through the burning of fossil fuels."
El Niño, a climate change phenomenon, is causing heatwaves in southern Africa, causing more sunlight to reach the surface and warming it more than normal. These heatwaves can lead to heat-related deaths, heat stroke, organ damage, and unconsciousness, and negatively impact livelihoods, including farming and water access. The worst-case scenario is heat-related deaths. El Niño periods are more intense and longer-lasting due to climate change, putting pressure on the agricultural sector, which suffered during the 2015/16 El Niño period. Maize crops reduced by 40% and the cattle industry suffered, which is vulnerable to heatwaves. El Niño can also bring unprecedented drought, putting pressure on water systems, as less rainfall means dams will not be as full. Older people living in informal settlements are also vulnerable. This El Nino presents an opportunity to learn about the vulnerabilities of drought and heat, and to prepare for the consequences of a world warmed by 1.5°C and make a strong contribution to mitigation, such as moving out of coal.
