The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has released its latest Integrated Resource Plan, which predicts that South Africa will not have uninterrupted power until at least 2030. The plan acknowledges that load shedding will be part of South Africa's future until the end of the decade at least. The IRP, gazetted on 4 January by Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, reveals that power supply will be constrained for the next six years due to an "electricity supply gap," despite efforts to add new supply to the grid.
Nuclear power is acknowledged as an important clean energy source of electricity generation because it can complement other clean energy technologies in reducing power sector emissions while also contributing to electricity security as a dispatchable power source. The flexibility of small modular reactors (SMRs) enables potential for hybrid energy systems that combine nuclear and alternative energy sources, including renewables. Extending the life of the Koeberg nuclear power station beyond 2024 is critical to retaining 1,860MW of power, which is about 5% of Eskom’s total generation capacity.
The DMRE describes its plan as a living document, “expected to be regularly reviewed as necessitated by changing circumstances.” Since the promulgation of the IRP 2019, several developments in the electricity industry in South Africa have occurred, such as the establishment of the Presidential Climate Commission, the Energy Action Plan, the removal of licensing requirements for the development of power generation by consumers, Treasury’s intervention to address Eskom debt, and the procurement of about 6,000 megawatts of additional generation capacity.
Several power plants have been operating longer than anticipated to help reduce the shortfalls. The department has modelled five scenarios to address the electricity supply deficit:
1. Supply-side initiatives currently under construction by both the private and public sectors. This scenario suggested that there would still be a “very high level of unserved energy,” rendering a continued constrained power system.
2. Bid Window 6 of the Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) and the battery energy storage procurement programmes showed a slight improvement in energy supply and high levels of unserved energy or a supply and demand deficit.
3. The recently launched Bid Window 7 of the REIPPPP shows an improvement in unserved energy levels from 2028 but not enough to secure supply.
4. The fifth scenario models the energy mix of scenario one and the improvement in performance of Eskom’s current coal-fired power stations or the Energy Availability Factor (EAF).
5. From 2031 to 2050, a massive new build programme must add significant generation capacity, which must begin “in earnest.”
Another five energy mix pathways are modelled over the coming decades:
1. Pathway 1 (the reference case) is the lowest-cost option, involving the deployment of solar PV, wind, and gas capacity. This would require a significant amount of capacity building and support a substantial reduction in emissions due to the shutdown of coal plants in favor of renewable and gas projects.
Pathways 2 and 3 support a transition to renewables and clean energy technologies. Pathway 3 allows gas-fired options until 2033 before the earliest assumed nuclear technologies become available. Pathway 4 considers stalling the shutdown of coal-fired power stations by ten years, until 2035, to ensure 15,000MW stays connected to the grid.
The IRP 2023 appears to be up in the air about the energy mix after 2030, saying the system will require a massive new build program as significant capacity will be needed in just over a decade from now.
